Model Selection of Shark Attack Case

Size Does Matter: Model Selection of Shark Attack Case

Andri Wibowo

ABSTRACT:

Shark unprovoked attacks consist of fatal and non-fatal cases. Numerous cases have been reported involving shark species from Carcharhinus melanopterus with length of 145.5 cm to half-ton Carcharodon carcharias. Currently there are more (P < 0.05) unprovoked non-fatal cases with the average is 28.46 cases/shark species (95%CI: 3.86-53.1) than unprovoked fatal cases, which the average is 5.12 cases /shark species (95%CI: -0.075-10.3). Hence this paper seeks to select the best shark size model that correlates with the unprovoked fatal and non-fatal cases. The studied sharks consist of 24 shark species with the average length is 268.18 cm (95%CI: 230-306 cm) and the average weight is 225.42 kg (95%CI: 128-323 kg). Based on the model and as described by low values of AIC and the highest values of R² and adjusted R² , shark weight followed by combinations of shark weight and length produced unprovoked fatal and non-fatal cases best models. The model for explaining unprovoked fatal cases is the shark weight with high numbers of cases observed in large size shark (weight⁓fatal cases, AIC = 165.359, R² = 0.72, Adj. R = 0.71). While for non-fatal cases, the best model is also the shark weight (weight⁓non fatal cases, AIC = 246.93, R² = 0.63, Adj. R = 0.59).

Preprints 2021, 2021020383, DOI: : 10.20944/preprints202102.0383.v1

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